Is the GOP the Finally Scorching Itself?
This 4th and final election of Obama’s time isn’t like the last three—but it’s the one that tells us which side will win the Obama era.
So now it’s officially campaign season, the fourth and last of the Obama era. The 2008 election saw Obama’s ascendant America rise up after eight conservative years and announce itself. For the 2010 election, the other America was able to gather its armies (if you’re a good political junkie, you’ll get the reference) and say to Obama’s America, “We hate everything you’re doing, and we’re going to stop you.” In the 2012 contest, Obama’s America managed to reassert itself with more ferocity than most experts expected. The three elections were all about the same thing—hope for this new future the Obama coalition seemed to augur, or fear of it.
Now? The hope tank is running on fumes. Even for those who don’t blame Obama for Washington’s paralysis, the mere fact of the dysfunction -- the dismal relentlessness of it, the realization that it will not change -- has led most people to throw in the towel to one extent or another. As for the fear, well, it’s still present, of course, and it may yet exist at a level of intensity great enough give Republicans a Senate majority. But it could also be that the Republicans have scorched so much earth these past six years that it’s finally starting to singe their own boot heels. Thus, the Democrats’ best hope for November: that enough voters in enough key states are sicker of the Republicans than of them.
Encouragingly, we’re starting to see a little bit of evidence that this may finally be the case. Politico posted an interesting piece Monday detailing how Republicans, who just two or three months ago were speaking expansively of vigorous gains in the House, were now dialing back the expectations meter from 25-plus seats to under half that. The Democratic PACs had outraised them, which is an interesting little factoid in and of itself. But the most arresting sentence in the piece was the one that said: “Nearly a year after the government shutdown, Republicans privately say the party’s tattered public image is dragging down candidates in key races.”
I’d love to think this was true. It’s been no secret that the GOP’s basic m.o. for the last six years has been to oppose everything Obama proposes. What is less clearly understood, however, is why. The reason is usually assumed to be ideological fervor, and while Lord knows there’s plenty of that, I think that the real reason for the wall of total opposition, especially among the savvier obstructionists, is something slightly subtler and more tactical—it’s to make Obama look feckless and weak, like a president who can’t pass a kidney stone.
You see, they know very well that the average American knows very little about how Washington works and just assumes that the president, simply by virtue of being president, can more or less tell Congress “this is what I want done,” and it gets done. What percentage of Americans knows, for example, that 41 senators can block almost anything? If it’s more than 8 percent, I’ll eat my hat in Macy’s proverbial window.See More